NWSL Women · Group Stage
North Carolina Courage W vs San Diego Wave W
Sat 17 Oct 2026 · 23:00 UTC · WakeMed Soccer Park
North Carolina Courage W host San Diego Wave W on Sat 17 Oct 2026 (NWSL Women); from both squads' Elo our model gives North Carolina Courage W 33%, draw 24%, San Diego Wave W 42%.
Prediction — from both squads' Elo
From the gap between the two clubs' squad Elo and this competition's home advantage. Women's line-ups are published only after the match, so this is the one prediction; it is frozen at kick-off.
Team Elo: North Carolina Courage W 2120 · San Diego Wave W 2244
Projected line-ups
Strongest available side by Elo in a 4-4-2 — not a team sheet, and not what the prediction is computed from.
Players to watch
Highest EAR (form over 180 days, at least five rated matches) in each projected eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.
North Carolina Courage W · Good+0.12 · Elo 2295
San Diego Wave W · Average+0.02 · Elo 2268
Form
Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.
North Carolina Courage W
- 3 OctWSeattle Reign FC W NWSL Women2115
- 27 SepLUtah Royals W NWSL Women2130
- 19 SepLNJ/NY Gotham FC W NWSL Women2133
- 12 SepLSan Diego Wave W NWSL Women2154
- 6 SepWChicago Red Stars W NWSL Women2089
San Diego Wave W
- 3 OctWOrlando Pride W NWSL Women2258
- 25 SepWRacing Louisville W NWSL Women2258
- 19 SepWKansas City W NWSL Women2221
- 12 SepWNorth Carolina Courage W NWSL Women2137
- 7 SepLSeattle Reign FC W NWSL Women2274
Season outlook
From the NWSL Women simulation.
| Club | Pts now | Pred. pts | Title |
|---|---|---|---|
| North Carolina Courage W | 42 /27 | 46.0 | 0% |
| San Diego Wave W | 51 /27 | 56.5 | 11% |
Team Elo history
Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.
Coach Elo history
Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).
North Carolina Courage W · Elo 1899
San Diego Wave W · Elo 2492