NWSL Women · Group Stage
Bay FC W vs Portland Thorns W
Sun 18 Oct 2026 · 21:00 UTC · PayPal Park
Bay FC W host Portland Thorns W on Sun 18 Oct 2026 (NWSL Women); from both squads' Elo our model gives Bay FC W 35%, draw 24%, Portland Thorns W 41%.
Prediction — from both squads' Elo
From the gap between the two clubs' squad Elo and this competition's home advantage. Women's line-ups are published only after the match, so this is the one prediction; it is frozen at kick-off.
Team Elo: Bay FC W 1990 · Portland Thorns W 2095
Projected line-ups
Strongest available side by Elo in a 4-4-2 — not a team sheet, and not what the prediction is computed from.
Players to watch
Highest EAR (form over 180 days, at least five rated matches) in each projected eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.
Bay FC W · Good+0.09 · Elo 1918
Portland Thorns W · Good+0.07 · Elo 2090
Form
Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.
Bay FC W
- 3 OctLKansas City W NWSL Women1976
- 27 SepLOrlando Pride W NWSL Women2011
- 20 SepWRacing Louisville W NWSL Women1991
- 17 SepDDenver Summit W NWSL Women1971
- 13 SepLSeattle Reign FC W NWSL Women1987
Portland Thorns W
- 4 OctLBoston Legacy W NWSL Women–
- 27 SepDHouston Dash W NWSL Women–
- 19 SepWOrlando Pride W NWSL Women–
- 13 SepDChicago Red Stars W NWSL Women–
- 6 SepLWashington Spirit W NWSL Women–
Season outlook
From the NWSL Women simulation.
| Club | Pts now | Pred. pts | Title |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bay FC W | 26 /27 | 29.0 | 0% |
| Portland Thorns W | 43 /27 | 47.5 | 0% |
Team Elo history
Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.